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Covid-19 Resurgence Simulator

A COVID-19 simulator for an urban environment

The Logistics Institute has developed a COVID-19 simulator for an urban environment using various parameters such as:

initial population

initial number of people infected

probability that a contact between a contagious person and healthy person results in the latter being infected

proportion of asymptomatic people in the population

proportion of population tested

start and end of lockdown

Access the simulator here

The
Approach

Various testing and lockdown strategies can be simulated and the results, such as the number of people in various stages of illness (severe, critical, death or recovered), can be seen and broken down by various age groups. Resurgence of the disease can also be seen based on varying the settings of the start and end dates of lockdown. The simulator allows setting ‘Ease-In’ and ‘Ease-Out’ for Lockdown. This means that the lockdown is progressively implemented over the ‘Ease-in’ period and, similarly, opening of the lockdown is progressively implemented over the ‘Ease-Out’ period. The contact rate goes down and up linearly over the ‘Ease-in’ and ‘Ease-Out’ periods.

This simulator has been built for educational purposes and allows for a deeper understanding of the impact of COVID-19 on the healthcare system and the complexity in the management of the disease. The underlying data has been obtained from various literature sources including the following: Neil M Ferguson et al,  ‘Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand’, Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team, Statista and Worldometers.

Access the simulator here.

To use the simulator:

Set the various dials and sliders to the desired numbers and press on ‘Run simulation’

Note that the settings for Lockdown Start, Lockdown End, ‘Ease-in’ and ‘Ease-Out’ periods should be:

Lockdown Start <= Lockdown Start + Ease-in <= Lockdown End <= Lockdown End + Ease-Out

To see the impact of any one parameter, press on the ‘Live’ button and change the settings of the parameters one at a time.

For more information or to simulate a particular scenario please contact Professor Amar Ramudhin.