Work Package 2 (WP2) Aim:
To build the transformation component of the Digital Twin and to create flood, drought, soil moisture, and groundwater level forecasts across the catchment at hourly-weekly timescales.
Specific tasks are:
Task 2.1 Developing a Digital Twin:
The transformation component of the Digital Twin will be built using the updated CAESAR-LISFLOOD (CL) model and the BGS CL port, CLIDE. This framework integrates models for groundwater recharge, soil moisture, groundwater flow, and surface water and storm surge inundation. These components will be linked, allowing for real-time exchange of water fluxes. The Digital Twin will use process-based hydrodynamic modeling to spatially interpolate point data sources, improving variable quantification between observation points.
The surface component will be constructed using higher resolution (5 to 10m) using LiDAR and NEXTmap elevation data. Urban drainage will be modeled using highways data from local councils, and surface water routing will be simulated with LISFLOOD-FP. Tidal inputs will be based on estuary tide data and can include near-time surge tide forecasts. The model will be calibrated against gauged river data and validated using soil moisture and evapotranspiration data from smart sensors and EO data. The groundwater model will be parameterized using geological and hydraulic data from the British national scale groundwater model (BGWM) and assessed with groundwater level time series. The final deliverable will be an integrated groundwater and surface flood model.
Task 2.2 Flood forecasting:
The Digital Twin will use physical data and open-source observations to simulate flash and surface water flooding. It will optimize hydraulic parameters by comparing model performance with EO flooding maps and real-time measurements. The system will provide forecasts of soil moisture, groundwater, surface water, and storm surge inundation, updated every 6 hours for up to 5 days and daily for the next month. These forecasts will use data from NOAA weather and seasonal climate forecasts. The deliverable will be an automated short-term forecasting capability.
Output of simulations of groundwater heads using CAESAR-Groundwater model developed by British Geological Survey as part of WP2